Articles Posted in Reports

On June 3 a report was released by the Joint Working Group of the Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries Advisory Councils concerning the impacts of climate change along the California coast in and around the San Francisco Bay area. The report summary states it “does not assess current conditions, or predict future changes. It presents scientific observations and expectations to identify potential issues related to changing climate – with an emphasis on the most likely ecological impacts and the impacts that would be most severe if they occur.”

Among the issues noted in the report are:

“an observed increase in sea level as recorded at the mouth of San Francisco Bay; extreme weather events (winds, waves, storms) and resultant coastal erosion; an increase in ocean acidity and more extreme weather patterns. Bay area roadways and sewage systems have been flooded by unusually heavy rainfall. It is noted that some animals, such as Humboldt squid, gray whales, and bottlenose dolphins have experienced a northward shift, which can affect other species in their changing range. In the case of the gray whales, they now must travel much farther north and longer to find food.”

The National Research Council issued three reports on May 19 calling for action to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and to begin adapting to climate change. The three reports, Advancing the Science of Climate Change, Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change and Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change are summarized in a press release which notes the significant issues facing the country.

Included among the recommendations in the three reports are:

“The report recommends that a single federal entity or program be given the authority and resources to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. The U.S. Global Change Research Program, established in 1990, could fulfill this role, but it would need to form partnerships with action-oriented programs and address weaknesses that in the past have led to research gaps, particularly in the critical area of research that supports decisions about responding to climate change.”

“An inclusive national policy framework is needed to ensure that all levels of government, the private sector, and millions of households and individuals are contributing to shared national goals. Toward that end, the U.S. should establish a greenhouse gas emissions “budget” that sets a limit on total domestic emissions over a set period of time and provides a clear, directly measurable goal. However, the report warns, the longer the nation waits to begin reducing emissions, the harder and more expensive it will likely be to reach any given emissions target.”
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In a letter from 255 members of the National Academy of Scientists, published in Science Magazine, they claim that climate change is a fact, as is the contribution of human activity to global warming. In a sharply worded letter decrying “McCarthy-like threats” the letter states in part:

“But there is nothing remotely identified in the recent events that changes the fundamental conclusions about climate change:

(i) The planet is warming due to increased concentrations of heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere. A snowy winter in Washington does not alter this fact.

The United States Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) issued a report today listing 24 indicators of the effects of climate change on the U.S. and its citizens. The report contains a number of significant findings including:

“• Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are increasing. Between 1990 and 2008, there has been about a 14 percent increase in emissions in the United States.

• Average temperatures are rising. Seven of the top 10 warmest years on record for the continental United States have occurred since 1990.

The Geological Society of America issued a revised position statement on climate change noting the need to address the significant contribution of GHGs to global warming. The statement states that its purpose is to: “(1) summarizes the strengthened basis for the conclusion that humans are a major factor responsible for recent global warming; (2) describes the large effects on humans and ecosystems if greenhouse‐gas concentrations and global climate reach projected levels; and (3) provides information for policy decisions guiding mitigation and adaptation strategies designed to address the future impacts of anthropogenic warming.”

The projections contained in the statement present a sobering picture of the future if action is not taken. “If greenhouse‐gas emissions follow the current trajectory, by 2100 atmospheric CO2 concentrations will reach two to four times pre‐industrial levels, for a total warming of less than 2 C to more than 5 C compared to 1850. This range of changes in greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature would substantially alter the functioning of the planet in many ways. The projected changes involve risk to humans and other species: (1) continued shrinking of Arctic sea ice with effects on native cultures and ice‐dependent biota; (2) less snow accumulation and earlier melt in mountains, with reductions in spring and summer runoff for agricultural and municipal water; (3) disappearance of mountain glaciers and their late summer runoff; (4) increased evaporation from farmland soils and stress on crops; (5) greater soil erosion due to increases in heavy convective summer rainfall; (6) longer fire seasons and increases in fire frequency; (7) severe insect outbreaks in vulnerable forests; (8) acidification of the global ocean; and (9) fundamental changes in the composition, functioning, and biodiversity of many terrestrial and marine ecosystems. In addition, melting of Greenland and West Antarctic ice (still highly uncertain as to amount), along with thermal expansion of seawater and melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps, will cause substantial future sea‐level rise along densely populated coastal regions, inundating farmland and dislocating large populations.”

-Steven Silverberg

In a report released this week, it was noted that climate change is resulting in the disappearance of glaciers in Glacier National Park. Included in the information released is a profile from the U.S. Geological Survey, which concluded that 12 of the 37 named glaciers in the Park are now so small they are no longer considered glaciers.

The release concludes:

“the last decade in Glacier National Park saw exactly double the temperature increase for the planet as a whole. The effects of this warming threaten Glacier National Park’s resources, from glaciers and snow-capped mountains to wildlife and forests, as well as the Montana jobs and tourism revenue the park generates.”

The Department of Energy announced a joint program called “Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction Using Earth System Models (EaSM)” to model and make more localized predictions of climate change.

In a statement released by the DOE it was noted:

“EaSM is distinguished by its promise for generating: 1) predictions of climate change and associated impacts at more localized scales and over shorter time periods than previously possible; and 2) innovative interdisciplinary approaches to address the interdisciplinary sources and impacts of climate change. These interdisciplinary approaches will draw on biologists, chemists, computer scientists, geoscientists, materials scientists, mathematicians, physicists, computer specialists, and social scientists….

The World Wildlife Fund reported the results of a study this week which “makes specific recommendations for incorporating protected areas into overall strategies to reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses from deforestation and degradation (nicknamed REDD).” The study noted the significant CO2 storage within areas that have been protected from deforestation.

-Steven Silverberg

A study released by the Journal Science this week reports that increases in the melting of permafrost in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf have the potential to significantly increase the venting of methane into the atmosphere. A summary of the report notes the potential of the release of methane from this area to contribute to global warming.

In a report issued this month by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, which looked at 13 economic sectors, the report concluded that motor vehicles contributed the most to atmospheric warming. In a departure from previous studies which focus on the impacts of individual chemicals, this study looked at where modifications to individual economic sectors may have the greatest impact on slowing or reducing climate change.

A press release issued by NASA notes that the study describes a complex interaction among chemical pollutants which variously have both warming and cooling effects. Thus, in addition to motor vehicles, the burning of household biofuels and raising livestock contribute the most to warming. Yet, the industrial sector releases aerosols into the atmosphere which have a cooling effect. But in discussing the impacts of motor vehicle emissions, the leader of the study Nadine Unger concludes:

“Targeting on-road transportation is a win-win-win, It’s good for the climate in the short term and long term, and it’s good for our health.”