The National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee has released a draft climate assessment report for public comment. The Draft Report discusses the various aspects of climate change and specific impacts on the various regions of the United States.
The Executive Summary provides an overview of the report with cross references to topics contained in specific chapters.
Noting human contribution to climate change the Executive Summary states:
In the Environmental Research Letter released this week in IOP Science, a new study concludes that recent projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) underestimate actual sea level rise. The study concludes: ” the rise in CO2 concentration and global temperature has continued to closely match the projections over the past five years, while sea level continues to rise faster than anticipated. The latter suggests that the 21st Century sea-level projections of the last two IPCC reports may be systematically biased low. Further support for this concern is provided by the fact that the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are increasingly losing mass (Rignot et al 2011, Van den Broeke et al 2011), while those IPCC projections assumed that Antarctica will gain enough mass in future to largely compensate mass losses from Greenland (see figure 10.33 in Meehl et al (2007)).”
California has issued its third assessment of the Impacts and potential responses to Climate Change. “Our Changing Climate 2012” issued by the California Climate Change Center looks at “adaptation options in regional case studies and offers insights into regulatory, legal, socioeconomic and other barriers to adaptation so that they can be addressed effectively at the local and state levels.”
Significantly the study notes there is a range of potential changes in climate over the next century but “study findings show that the climate choices society makes today and in the coming years can have a profound impact on future conditions.”
The study goes on to find:
The U. S. Geological Survey issued a press release today stating that sea level rise along a 600 mile stretch of the U.S. Atlantic coast Is at a pace three to four times that of other areas of the world. The press release states the published article in “Nature Climate Change” concludes that in the last 22 years: “…sea-level rise in the 600-mile stretch of coastal zone from Cape Hatteras N.C. to north of Boston, Mass. — coined a “hotspot” by scientists — has increased 2 – 3.7 millimeters per year; the global increase over the same period was 0.6 – 1.0 millimeter per year.”
The press release notes that “the increases in sea level rise rate that have already occurred in the hotspot will yield increases in sea level of 8 to 11.4 inches by 2100. This regional sea level increase would be in addition to components of global sea level rise.”
In a study released this week, UCLA predicts significant warming in Los Angeles and the surrounding area by mid-century. The study “shows projected climate changes down to the neighborhood level…”
Among the study’s conclusions:
“Southern Californians should expect slightly warmer winters and springs but much warmer summers and falls, with more frequent heat waves. Temperatures now seen only on the seven hottest days of the year in each region will occur two to six times as often. The number of days when the temperature will climb above 95 degrees will increase two to four times, depending on the location. Those days will roughly double on the coast, triple in downtown Los Angeles and Pasadena, and quadruple in Woodland Hills. In Palm Springs, the number of extremely hot days will increase from an annual average of 75 to roughly 120.”
A joint study by Princeton and MIT published in the journal Nature Climate Change suggests that, by the end of the century, 100 year flood events could come as often as every 3 to 20 years in New York City, as a result of increased storm surge caused by climate change. A summary of the study notes:
“The researchers found that the frequency of massive storm surges would go up in proportion to an increase in more violent storms and a rise in sea level, the researchers reported. They noted that climate models predict that the sea level around New York City could rise by 1.5 to nearly 5 feet by the end of the 21st century.”
One of the study’s co-authors Professor Michael Oppenheimer is quoted as stating
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations Authority on global climate released its 2011 provisional statement this week. One of the most striking statements contained in the release is that presently ” 2011’s nominal value ranks as the equal 10th highest on record, and the 13 warmest years have all occurred in the 15 years between 1997 and 2011.”
The statement notes the many significant weather events during 2011 and that:
“Arctic sea ice extent was again well below normal in 2011. After tracking at record or near-record low levels for the time of year through the first half of 2011, the seasonal minimum, reached on 9 September, was 4.33 million square kilometres (35% below the 1979-2000 average). This was the second-lowest seasonal minimum on record, 0.16 million square kilometres above the record low set in 2007. Unlike the 2007 season, both the Northwest and Northeast Passages were ice-free for periods during the 2011 summer. Sea ice volume was even further below average and was estimated at a new record low of 4200 cubic kilometres, surpassing the record of 4580 cubic kilometres set in 2010.”
NYSERDA has issued a scientific report on the impacts of Climate Change in New York and strategies to address the inevitable changes taking place. In the summary report entitled Responding to Climate Change in New York State, as well as the technical report, it is made clear:
” Climate change is already beginning to affect the people and resources of New York State, and these impacts are projected to grow. At the same time, the state has the potential capacity to address many climate-related risks, thereby reducing negative impacts and taking advantage of possible opportunities.”
Significantly, the report notes that extreme weather events are already increasing and that once certain “tipping points” are crossed there will be dramatic changes. Breaking New York into regions, the report sets forth the predicted changes in temperature and precipitation over the coming decades and notes “[t]hese are neither best case nor worst case; actual changes could be lower if emissions are cut aggressively, or higher if the world continues on a business as usual course.”
A study commissioned by the California Department of Boating and Waterways has concluded that there is the potential for significant economic impacts from rising sea levels on California’s coastal communities. The report was prepared by economists from San Francisco State University. The study notes that it took into account a variety of potential economic impacts:
“Since planning for sea-‐level rise requires a comprehensive assessment of potential damages, we include sea-‐level rise impacts to sandy beach recreation value, habitat value, and beach tourism-‐related spending. These damages are more indirect than losses to upland structures and land, yet are also vital to understanding the true economic impact of sea-‐level rise.”
In a press release announcing the study it was noted:
In a report published last week in the Journal Nature by contributing authors from NOAA, it was suggested that reducing non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases would result in some more rapid benefits in combating climate change. The report states:
“methane, nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting substances (largely from sources other than fossil fuels), also contribute significantly to warming. Some non-CO2 greenhouse gases have much shorter lifetimes than CO2, so reducing their emissions offers an additional opportunity to lessen future climate change.”
The report notes that because these gases have a “shorter atmospheric lifetime” than carbon dioxide the beneficial effects could be realized more rapidly than can be achieved with reductions in carbon dioxide, although resulting in only a partial solution to climate change.
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